Will local or national issues win the day as Lancashire goes to the polls?
On the eve of the local elections, we look at what's been happening across the county
Hello and welcome to The Lancashire Lead.
It is local elections week, which means I am gearing up for a stint from late Thursday night straight through into late Friday covering the results and reaction from across the county.
What actually happens is challenging to predict. But it is hard to see a world where Labour don’t lose total seats, and the Greens and Reform UK don’t make gains.
Lancashire, though, is especially interesting as an area that has one year of Reform UK leadership at Lancashire County Council already to inspire voters.
A bad result for Labour will be viewed as a verdict on Keir Starmer. Would a disappointing night for Reform UK be viewed as a verdict on how Lancashire County Council is being led?
Today’s edition is our big election preview.
Lancashire briefing
✂️ A political row has broken out after the Reform UK group that runs Lancashire County Council announced that it plans to “withdraw” the local authority from two government schemes that rehome refugees in the area. The party says a proposal to end its involvement in the UK Resettlement Scheme (UKRS) and the Afghan Resettlement Programme (ARP) will be put before cabinet later this summer. However, opposition groups branded the move a “stunt” and a “dog whistle” – claiming, variously, that it will not stop refugees from being housed in the county, but could cut off funding for those who have already arrived. Reform UK says the county council will remain within the Homes for Ukraine initiative – designed to help those who fled to the UK after Russia’s invasion of their country – which it describes as having “a legal obligation” to provide. But it has pledged to pull out of what it calls “discretionary” schemes. When quizzed, Reform UK did not answer and Lancashire County Council said ‘ask the Home Office’.
🚔 Lancashire Police has no immediate plans to introduce a new type of speed camera that can see into vehicles and capture other motoring offences. The artificial intelligence-powered devices – which are designed to catch drivers using a mobile phone, not being in proper control of their vehicle or not wearing a seatbelt – first appeared on UK roads during trials three years ago. They have since been rolled out more widely, with Sussex Police becoming the latest force to deploy the new kit – which continues to monitor speed – last month. However, Lancashire Constabulary said that it was “not currently” planning to bring the technology to the county’s highway network – but was exploring “lots of options” surrounding the latest advancements in enforcement.
🏰 Historic Clitheroe Castle, a key Lancashire tourist attraction, could come under new ownership in a shake-up of councils expected in 2028. The landmark 12th Century fortress draws visitors to Clitheroe and the wider region. And it is currently having repairs, as part of a £2.3million investment programme on the castle and grounds by Ribble Valley Borough Council. But the borough council, which owns the whole castle site, could be merged with Preston and Lancaster or scrapped under government plans to reorganise all Lancashire councils. This raises questions about who might own and maintain it in future. Now, Ribble Valley Borough Council is looking at options which could involved transferring the castle to another owner, if the 2028 shake-up happens. Other council-owned buildings, like Ribblesdale Pool, and land could be transferred too.
Will local or national issues win the day as Lancashire goes to the polls?
By Luke Beardsworth
Seven of Lancashire’s 15 councils will head to the polls this week in a set of local elections that will - rightly or wrongly - be portrayed as a referendum of the performance of the Prime Minister.
Sir Keir Starmer, Prime Minister since 2024’s Labour landslide on the back of 14 years of Conservative rule, is under pressure for a multitude of reasons ranging from the Peter Mandelson scandal all the way to pressure from core party voters who believe he is not being radical enough.
That means that many voters are looking for alternatives - and those alternatives are most likely to take shape in the form of Reform UK, the Greens and Lib Dems.
And while there is plenty of truth in the notion that a party’s national perception can affect performance locally - where decision-making is often massively distant from whoever the party leader is - there are no shortage of issues on the ground that will impact how people vote in these elections.
Leading national polls comfortably at the moment are Reform UK - which throws up some interesting questions for Lancashire in particular.
All of Burnley, Chorley, Hyndburn, Pendle, Preston and West Lancashire returned Reform UK candidates to varying degrees in the 2025 Lancashire County Council elections, meaning the electorate in these areas now has some experience of being under their leadership.
For that reason, it is perhaps unsurprising that the council Reform UK are expecting to perform best in is Blackburn with Darwen - which has the chance to vote for the party in a full election for the first time.
Pollcheck - to be taken with a hearty pinch of salt, particularly where independents are involved in the mix - predicts that Reform UK will win 10 of the 17 seats up for grabs on Thursday.
This is despite high-profile revelations involving at least two of their candidates in the build up.
John Black, 55, standing in Little Harwood and Whitebirk, is one of three candidates nationwide to be thrown out of Reform UK following an investigation by anti-racist campaign group HOPE Not Hate and the Daily Mirror.
All three feature on a leaked list of BNP members and contacts from 2007-2008. It is believed that the list included members at the time, former members and individuals who showed interest in the party but did not officially join. Mr Black told The Mirror he had never been a BNP member.
Black’s expulsion comes against the background of a continuing row over social media posts by Reform UK’s Blackburn South East local election candidate Andy Mahon.
His now-deleted Facebook messages include the use of the ‘n’ word, sexist and offensive remarks about the new Green MP for Gorton and Denton, Hannah Spencer, references to former Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner being overweight, and homophobic remarks about Health Secretary Wes Streeting.
In response to Andy Mahon’s social media posts, Reform UK said it believed in free speech.
