Electoral wipeout looming for Lancashire's Tories?
The Lancashire Lead - June 5, 2024
Could the Conservatives actually be wiped out in Lancashire? Instinct says no but it’s entirely possible according to YouGov’s analysis of 60,000 people which forecasts that the county could return zero Conservative MPs.
The poll predicts a bigger landslide than 1997 and, if proved correct, would see the likes of Jake Berry, Paul Maynard and Andrew Stephenson all sent packing. Those three seats are among those described as leaning towards Labour, while Hyndburn and South Ribble - held by Sara Britcliffe and Katherine Fletcher respectively - are considered likely Labour wins.
Likewise, Burnley, which based on previous votes and boundary changes is considered the most marginal seat in the country, and Southport, which has taken in three South Ribble wards and has never had a Labour MP, are being considered likely wins for the party (sidenote: expect to see a lot of national attention on Burnley soon).
The only place where a Labour win isn’t forecast is Fylde, where former Police and Crime Commissioner Andrew Snowden is standing for the Tories and is estimated to have the biggest vote share. However, the 3% margin is so tight that YouGov records it as a ‘tossup’, meaning it’s too close to call - LancsLive’s Susan Newton visited St Anne’s this week to gauge the mood in the town.
Local Conservative sources are bullish about the forecast, insisting the answers on doorsteps across the county paint a very different picture. You can read all of YouGov’s analysis here but here are the Lancashire summaries:
The latest party leader to visit Lancashire was George Galloway of the Worker’s Party of Britain. The Rochdale MP was supporting Blackburn candidate Craig Murray - one of two confirmed Lancashire candidates for the party so far alongside Robert William Perks in Fylde.
I’ll be back with a special edition of The Lancashire Lead on Friday with a full list of the all the confirmed candidate for each seat. Subscribe to make sure you receive that and all future editions.
There’s also lots to look forward to in our other Lead titles this week, with newsletters dedicated to Blackpool and Hyndburn and other areas outside Lancashire
Away from politics, one story which caught my attention was a plan to build a memorial garden in honour of George Hinds. For those who don’t know, two-year-old George was killed in an explosion when neighbour Darren Greenham drunkenly hacked at gas pipes in their council-owned home while the Hinds family slept next door. But the gas wasn’t even disconnected and the resulting explosion which killed George damaged another 55 properties in the surrounding area and could be seen from several miles away.
I was present for Greenham’s sentencing and it remains the one incident which has stayed with me more than any other in a decade of journalism. To describe the killing as senseless doesn’t even come close to an accurate description and I have no adequate words for the power of George’s father Stephen reading his victim impact statement in court while clutching his beloved boy’s Paw Patrol pillow.
The proposal would see the memorial garden built where their house once stood filled with love, happiness and optimism for the future. I do hope to see this plan become a reality.
From the nationals, I would also recommend reading this Guardian piece on the wife of murdered Lancaster journalist Dom Phillips visiting the site of his death and watching this ITV News segment on the state of the NHS which contains some very ominous warnings from Fleetwood based GP Dr Adan Janjua.
🚓 Police have charged a man with the manslaughter of Fleetwood mum Kiera Dawes. He’s been given bail until a court appearance next month (Lancaster Guardian).
⚠️ Pendle has again been named the area with the highest rates of child poverty in Britian (LancsLive).
⏰ A nurse has been struck off after submitting false timesheets and claiming £26k in earnings for work she never did (BBC).
🎤 Sting, The Pet Shop Boys, Travis, Pixie Lott and The Manic Street Preachers are among the names who will play Preston this summer. BBC Radio 2 in the Park’s lineup was confirmed this week, with tickets now on sale for Lancs residents (Blog Preston).
♟️A chess set sold at a Blackburn auction made its stunned owners an incredible £13k (Lancashire Telegraph).
💔 Tributes have been paid to a Morecambe man who died in a crash in Cumbria. Hugh ‘Shug’ Mooney was remembered as a “true and loyal family man” (Lancaster Guardian).
🚌 Penwortham residents have been left furious over plans to install a bus lane which will take parking spaces away from outside their homes (Blog Preston).
🖥️ Hyndburn’s messy mayor row continues with the controversial new appointee now referred to the Information Commissioner over an alleged data breach (LancsLive).
🚨 As if sexually assaulting a young woman wasn’t horrid enough, a dangerous pervert then falsely accused her of molesting him and only admitted his guilt on the day his trial was due to begin. Kamran Rashid is now back in prison (LancsLive).
💷 The restoration of Colne's Municipal Hall has had to be rescued by £500k of council money as a result of spiralling costs which mean the Levelling Up Fund allocation is no longer enough to complete the job (Burnley Express).
🚍 Morris dancers were left devastated when the bus they’d spent months restoring was attacked by vandals (LancsLive). ↪️ A fundraiser set up to help the group is available here.
☕ A volunteer who has dedicated three decades to the Derian House Children's Hospice in Chorley was honoured at a Buckingham Palace tea party (BBC).
A slightly frustrating Eden Project Morecambe update comes from the news two of the planned consultation events have been cancelled. As reported by Beyond Radio, the plans have fallen foul of the General Election, with council bosses concerned over the strict rules which govern what local authorities can say during pre-election periods.
The next event will take place on August 6 and you can sign up to attend here.
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I’m excited to say I’ll be going up to three editions a week ahead of the election, with regular Wednesday and Sunday issues and a weekly special - the first will land in inboxes on Friday.
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